Reading Map
The strategy page is a decision document; supporting detail is layered.
This page presents the investment thesis, operating model, growth plan and risks. The financial model, pricing, grants, costs, margins and scenarios are managed in the dashboard as the single source of truth.
1. Decision Summary
What the model is, its critical figures, the 2031 target, break-even point and investment logic.
First read here
2. Operation Spine
Plant, distilation, extraction, quality laboratory, energy and indoor cycle production.
How does it work?
3. Financial Source
Revenue, price, investment, grant, cost and margin details are kept in dashboard.
Go to Dashboard
4. Risk Discipline
A mitigation plan for agricultural, market, operational, regulatory and competitive risks.
What can go wrong?
Sales, trade fairs, samples, CRM and buyer tracking are covered on the Sales & Marketing page; field execution and plant-level trial management are covered in the Sarıcakaya Field Guide. No detail has been removed here; the reading map simply puts the main decision flow first.
01Executive Summary
Selvese Botanica
Executive Summary · 2026–2031
Investor Summary
The model’s operating spine and critical figures at a glance.
Model Summary
Selvese is building a premium botanical-processing model priced on quality rather than agricultural volume. Revenue is diversified across essential oils, extracts and hydrosols. Capital is concentrated in the quality backbone, while scale depends on the contract-grower network.
Critical Figures
DashboardRevenue, EBITDA and net profit
DashboardBreak-even and cash flow
20Number of types in portfolio
4 PhasesStaged scale-up plan
Single Source Rule
The financial model, revenue scenarios, investment plan and break-even analysis are maintained in the dashboard.
The strategy page explains the investment thesis and why the model exists. Revenue, EBITDA, net profit, grants, investment phases, costs, raw-material margins and scenario controls are tracked in the dashboard as the single canonical source, avoiding duplicate financial figures across pages.
Production Zones — Eskişehir Basin
Main Base · 2026
Kızılinler
750 decares · Fixed Facility
- 1,000 m2 closed production facility
- Distilation + Extraction center
- 8.500 m2 seedling production greenhouse
- Analytical & R&D infrastructure
🏭
Premium · 2029
Sarıcakaya
750 decares · Precision Crops
- Microclimate advantage
- Early / long harvest window
- High active substance potential
- Mobile distilation integration u
🌿
Balance · 2030
Seyitgazi
750 decares · Harvest Balancing
- Flexible production capacity
- Stress controlled trials
- Mobile system supported
- Seasonal occupancy balancing
⚗️
Scale · 2031
Alpu
750 decares · Volume Production
- Low input cost
- Large agriculture area
- Suitable for contracted production
- Scalable altyap
📈
02Product Portfolio
Product Portfolio — Technical Cards
SELVESE BOTANICA · 20 PRODUCTS · B2B · ESSENTIAL OIL · HYDROSOL · STANDARDIZED EXTRACT
Group A — Aromatic / Essential Oil
A1 · Aromatic
Sage
Salvia officinalis
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Hidrosol
Ekstrakt
Active Component
1.8-cineole (18–43), camphor, rosmarinic acid
Goal Segmen Tags
Cosmetics · Pharmaceutical · Functional food
GC–MS
HPLC
Chemotype Control
Advantages of Selvese: The cineole/camphor profile is monitored with selected genetic and lot analysis verified; it is connected to the accepted buyer specification Tags
A2 · Aromatic
Thyme — Thymus
Thymus vulgaris
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Ekstrakt
Active Component
Thymol (40–55) or Linalool — chemotype based
Goal Segmen Tags
Cosmetics · Aromatherapy · Pharmaceutical
GC–MS
Chemotype Verification
Selvese advantage: Thymol/linalool chemotypes are managed separately; each lot profile is verified against the buyer specification by GC–MS.
A3 · Aromatic
Oregano — Origanum
Origanum spp.
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Ekstrakt
Active Component
Carvacrol (60–80)
Goal Segmen Tags
Food · Pharmaceutical · Antimicrobial products
GC–MS
Carvacrol Profile
Advantages of Selvese: Turkey is an important Origanum supply origin; it is competition with a lot-based carvacrol profile
A4 · Aromatic
Rosemary
rosmarinus
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Hidrosol
Active Component
1.8-cineole, camphor, α-pinene, verbenone
Goal Segmen Tags
Cosmetics (hair/skin) · Aromatherapy · Perfume
GC–MS
Chemotype Control
Advantages of Selvese: Verbenone type high value added; introduction to premium cosmetic segment with chemotype based production
A5 · Aromatic
Lemon Balm
Melissa officinalis
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Hidrosol
Ekstrakt
Active Component
Citral (geranial+neral), rosmarinic acid
Goal Segmen Tags
Pharmaceutical · Cosmetics · Functional food
GC–MS
HPLC
Citral Profile
Advantages of Selvese: Low essential oil yield → extract format pre-plan; value production in high price segment
A6 · Aromatic · Premium
Immortelle
Helichrysum pushed
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Hidrosol
Active Component
Neryl acetate (30–50), oalidiones I/II/III
Goal Segmen Tags
Premium cosmetics · Anti-aging · Niche perfumeer
GC–MS
Chemotype Verification
Neryl Acetate
Advantages of Selvese: The highest priced product of the portfolio · Suitable for Turkish climate Mediterranean chemotype · Fixing profile with trial → vegetative replica
Group B — Pharmaceutical / Extrax Tags
B1 · Pharmaceutical
Chamomile
Matricaria Chamomilla
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Hidrosol
Ekstrakt
Active Component
Chamazulene (3–15), α-bisabolol, apigenin
Goal Segmen Tags
Dermokozmetik · Pharmaceuticals · Baby products
GC–MS
HPLC
Chamazulene Profile
Advantages of Selvese: Blue color and chamazulene profile are quality indicators; all tests of monograph related to pharmamakope compliance are shown to meet
B2 · Pharmaceutical
Echinacea
Echinacea purpurea
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Standardized Extra Tags
Active Component
Alkamides, cichoric acid, polyphenols
Goal Segmen Tags
Immune Supplements · Pharmaceuticals · US market
HPLC
Polyphenol Profile
Advantages of Selvese: Plant part and target markers are defined by buyer's specification; they confirm standardization between HPLC lotlar
B3 · Pharmaceutical
St John’s Wort
Hypericum perforatum
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Standardized Extra Tags
Active Component
Hypericin (0.05%), hyperforin (4–5)
Goal Segmen Tags
Physiotherapy · Pharmaceutical · Cosmetics
HPLC
Hypericin Standardization
Advantages of Selvese: hypericin/hyperforin profile with HPLC can be verified; farmakope depended on all the conditions of monograph related Tags
B4 · Pharmaceutical
Rodiola
Rhodiola rosea
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Standardized Extra Tags
Active Component
Rosavin, salidroside, phenolic glycoside Tags
Goal Segmen Tags
Adaptogen supplement · Pharmaceutical · Wellness
HPLC
Rosavin / Salidroside
Advantages of Selvese: Need high confidence in the adaptogen segment; root extract standardization with HPLC and contracted production discipline
B5 · Pharmaceutical
Marshmallow Root
Subhaea officinalis
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Auction Extra Tags
Active Component
Mukopolissaccharides (similation), pectins, flavonoids
Goal Segmen Tags
Pharmaceutical · Cosmetics (nemant) · Functional food
Limitation Rate
Purity Test
Polisakkarit
Advantages of Selvese: The year of harvest is documented the values of the accumulation and purity; it is assessed according to all tests of monograph related to pharmamakope compliance
B6 · Pharmaceutical
Licorice Root
Glycyrrhiza Glabra
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Standardized Extra Tags
Active Component
Glycyrrhizin (4–25), liquiritin, isoliquiritin
Goal Segmen Tags
Pharmaceutical · Cosmetics (skin lightening) · Food aroma
HPLC
Glycyrrhizin Standardization
Advantages of Selvese: 3. year harvest; Turkey strong natural population; benchmark production with EU genetics
B7 · Pharmaceutical
Hawthorn
Crataegus spp.
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Standardized Extra Tags
Active Component
OPC, flavonoids (vitexin, hyperoside), phenolic acids
Goal Segmen Tags
Cardiovascular support · Pharmaceutical · Functional food
HPLC
OPC Profile
Flavonoid Analysis
Advantages of Selvese: The European Union has a vegetable monograph for leaf and flower; commercial demand and acceptance criteria are verified by the buyer
Group C — Spice / Aroma
C1 · Spice / Aroma
Black Cumin
Nigella sativa
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Cold Press Oil
Active Component
Thymoquinone (0.5–1.5%), thymohydroquinone
Goal Segmen Tags
Food supplements · Cosmetics · Cold press oil market
GC–MS
Thymoquinone Profile
Oil Acid Analysis
Advantages of Selvese: Thymoquinone standardization is rare in Turkey; high added value in cold press oil segment
C2 · Spice / Aroma
Fennel
Foeniculum vulgare
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Ekstrakt
Active Component
Anethole (70–90), phenchone, estragole
Goal Segmen Tags
Food · Pharmaceutical · Oral care
GC–MS
Estragole Control
Advantages of Selvese: Estragole rate control is critical for EU/US regulation compliance; Selvese produces this analysis
C3 · Spice / Aroma
Anise
Pinpinella anisum
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Active Component
Trans-anethole (80–90), estragole, anisaldehyde
Goal Segmen Tags
Food/ beverage aroma · Pharmaceutical
GC–MS
Trans-anethole Profile
Advantages of Selvese: Turkey strong manufacturer; international beverage and food industry buyer trust with analytical data
C4 · Spice / Aroma
Cumin
Cyminu
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Oleoresin
Active Component
Cuminaldehyde (20%–45), (%-terpinene, p-cymene
Goal Segmen Tags
Food industry · Pharmaceutical · Cosmetics
GC–MS
Cuminaldehyde Profile
Advantages of Selvese: Food industry B2B with calinaldehyde purity; cost+quality balance of Turkish origin
C5 · Spice / Aroma
Coriander
Coriandrum
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Essential Oil
Active Component
Linalool (60–75), geraniol, camphor
Goal Segmen Tags
Food · Cosmetics · Perfume
GC–MS
Linalool Profile
Advantages of Selvese: High linalool oriented line; added value production in perfumer and cosmetics segment
Group D — Industrial / Cosmetics
D1 · Industrial
Soapwort
Gypsophila spp.
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Saponin Extra Tags
Active Component
Triterpenoid saponins (gypsogenin derivatives)
Goal Segmen Tags
Food (helva/loxum) · Cosmetics (natural foam) · Industrial treatment
Total Saponin
Foam Capacity
Purity Test
Advantages of Selvese: Turkey strong prevenant manufacturer; premium B2B supply to food industry with standardization of saponin
D2 · Cosmetics
Blue Cornflower
Centaurea cyanus
B2B Price
Price model in dashboard
Hidrosol
Ekstrakt
Active Component
Anthocyanins (cyanidin derivatives), flavonoids
Goal Segmen Tags
Cosmetics (eye surroundings) · Edible flower · Functional infusion
Anthocyanin Profile
Color Stability
Hydrosol Purity
Advantages of Selvese: Color stability + strong advantage in organic certification cosmetic segment; quick return product
03Vision, Team and Market Analysis
Selvese Botanica
Section 2 & 3 — Vision, Team and Market Analysis · 2026–2031
Concept · Central Facilities
Corporate Production Language
Specific facility visual; premium production and analytical quality promise in one square.
Facilities Location
Field player not; a platform with production, quality and export discipline.
The central facility planned in Eskisehir Redins converts raw material from contracted manufacturer network into standardized active component — distilation, extraction and quality laboratory under one roof.
Distilation & extraction · certified process
GC-MS / HPLC analytical laboratory · lot-based verification
EU priority export packaging and labeling line
Analytical Laboratory
GC-MS is a clean and controlled production language that represents HPLC and quality verification spine.
Processing and Distinction
The processing discipline and plant scale of raw material to the premium product.
Corporate Welcome
It supports that the brand is not only producing, giving confidence and looks premium.
Section 02 — Company Vision & Eki Tags
Basic Values
Measurementable Quality
Active profile verified by GC–MS/ HPLC; not "good plant", proven component
Manufacturer Partnership
Bedelless seedling, technical training and purchasing guarantee; fair income sharing
Cycle Production
Distilation pulp turns into activated carbon; zero waste, maximum value
Traceability
Full documentation from seed lot to final product; EU and US buyer’s trust
Scientific Discipline
R&D and analytical infrastructure in the center of production; decision based on data
Management Team — Karma Professional Structure
🔬
Science & Vision
Board Member
General Coordinator
General Coordinator
deep academic accumulation in the field of medicinal and aromatic plants; scientific foundation of the project, founder vision and sectoral autorit
🌿
Liderlik
General Manager
Agricultural entrepreneurship and business development; European market knowledge
🌾
Agriculture & Field
Agricultural & Contracted Production Director
Root farming experience; coordination with contracted producers, harvest planning and management of the local manufacturer network
🌿
Plant & Production Science
Plant Science & Production Director
Identification of medicinal and aromatic plants, culture and scientific production management; plant quality and standardization u
🧪
R&D
R&D Director
Analytical standardization, chemotype research, quality protocols
🌍
Sales & Export
Sales and Export Director
European and US market development, buyer relations, certification processes
💼
Finans
Financial Affairs Director
Corporate finance and public support (KOSGEB/TUBİTAK) management
📦
Operasyon
Operations Director
Management of post-production processes; coordination of storage, packaging, shipment and facility operations u
Chapter 03 — Market Analysis & Competition
Goal Markets — Europe & USA
Primary Market
🇪🇺
European Union
Germany · Netherlands · France
Botanical Extract Market (2024)
1.1 Billion USD
→ 9,2 Billion USD prediction in 2033
Annual Growth
%10,7
Introduction Year
2028
Direct supply B2B
Secondary Market
🇺🇸
United States
Botanical Supplement Market
Retail Herbal Supplement Sales (2024)
13.23 Billion USD
2023: 12,55 Billion USD
Annual Growth
%5,4
2024 years of growth
Introduction Year
2029
Distributor partnership + private label
Target Segment Growth Rates (/year)
EU Segments
US Segments
Competition Positioning Matrix
Turkish Raw Drog Exporters
Cost Advantage
Analytical Quality
Sertifikasyon
Traceability
Value Added
Bulgarian / Romanian Manufacturers
Cost Advantage
Analytical Quality
Sertifikasyon
Traceability
Value Added
French / German Premium
Cost Advantage
Analytical Quality
Sertifikasyon
Traceability
Value Added
⭐ Selvese
Selvese Botanica
Cost Advantage
Analytical Quality
Sertifikasyon
Traceability
Value Added
Market Entry Strategy — Summary
04Production Model
Production Model and Facility Infrastructure
SELVESE BOTANICA · SECTION 5 · 2026–2031
4.1 — Integrated Production Flow
Latest Product from Raw Materials — Fully Integrated Flow
Fide Production
8.500 m2 greenhouse
1M pcs/year
Genetic Control
1M pcs/year
Genetic Control
›
Contracted Field
100+ growers
3,000 decares
Chemotype discipline
3,000 decares
Chemotype discipline
›
Harvest & Transportation
1.500 tons of age
mass/year
Cold logistics
mass/year
Cold logistics
›
Preliminary Analysis
Lot acceptance test
Authentication
GC–MS quick scan
Authentication
GC–MS quick scan
↓
Steam Distilation u
1 fixed + 3 mobile
Essential oil + hydrosol
Steam boiler system
Essential oil + hydrosol
Steam boiler system
PARALEL
⇕
Hidroetanolik
Ekstraksiyon
Ekstraksiyon
Ethanol + water (square)
Standardized active component
Ethanol Recovery
Standardized active component
Ethanol Recovery
↓
Analytical Verification
GC–MS + HPLC
Lot certificate
CoA certificate
Lot certificate
CoA certificate
›
Packaging & Export
B2B bulk pack
Traceable lot code
EU + US shipment Tags
Traceable lot code
EU + US shipment Tags
↓
♻️
Zero Waste Cycle: Distilation + Extraction Posa → Activated Carbon Production Line (2029)
4.2 — Process Comparison
Steam Distilation & Hydroponic Extraction
Steam Distilation u
Tags
Steam dispersion — volatile component separation with steam pressure
Products
Essential oil + Hydrosol (yan product → sold)
Applied Plants
Thyme, Sage, Rosemary, Chamomile, Melisa, Immortelle, Lavender
Kapasite
~1.500 ton age mass/year (fix + 3 mobile)
Enerji
High — steam production electricity intensive
Hydroetanolic Extraction
Tags
Ethanol + water (set rate according to the type of bit) — wide polar/apolar scope
Products
Liquid extract + Dry powder extract (spray-dry)
Applied Plants
Echinacea, St John’s Wort, Rhodiola, Hawthorn, Licorice, Marshmallow Root, Soapwort
Kapasite
~200 ton dry plant/good Tags
Enerji
Medium — ethanol requires recovery distortion
4.3 — Product Based Extract Rates
Hydroetanolic Extraction — Product Based Parameters
| Products | ethanol Rate | Ethanol : Water | Target Active Component | Format |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekinezya | %70 | Alkamides, cichoric acid | Liquid + Dry powder | |
| St John’s Wort | %60 | Hypericin, hyperforin | Liquid + Dry powder | |
| Tags | %70 | OPC, vitexin, hyperoside | Dry powder | |
| Rodiola | %60 | Rosavin, salidroside | Liquid + Dry powder | |
| Licorice Root | %30 | Glycyrrhizin, liquiritin | Dry powder | |
| Marshmallow Root | Water based | Contractor, Polysaccharides | Liquid extra Tags | |
| Otu | %50 | Triterpenoid saponins | Dry powder |
4.4 — Capacity & Energy
Capacity Growth and Energy Consumption (2026–2031)
2031 goal
1.500
ton/year age mass
distortion capacity
distortion capacity
2031 Forecast
~430K
kWh/year
total energy consumption
total energy consumption
Evaluation phase
%30–40
with solar energy
potential savings
potential savings
Age Mass Capacity (ton/year)
Energy Consumption (MWh/Year)
4.5 — Water Management
Annual Water Consumption Distribution (2031 Forecast)
Field Irrigation (Girls)
%80
Greenhouse Irrigation
%16
Distilation Cooling
%2,7
Extraction Process
%1,1
Toplam: ~18.700 m3/year
Strateji: Drip irrigation system + efficiency with closed circuit cooling
Strateji: Drip irrigation system + efficiency with closed circuit cooling
4.6 — Zero Waste Cycle
Zero Waste — Closed Loop Production Model
Raw Material Input
1.500 ton age mass/stack Tags
Plant entering distillation
200 ton dry plant/yi Tags
Plant entering the plant
Plant entering distillation
200 ton dry plant/yi Tags
Plant entering the plant
Process Outputs
Essential oil → Sale
Hydrosol → Sales
Standardized Extract → Sales
Reverse debris. ethanol → Loop
Posa → Activated Carbon
Hydrosol → Sales
Standardized Extract → Sales
Reverse debris. ethanol → Loop
Posa → Activated Carbon
Activated Carbon (2029+)
~1.200 ton posa/year
Carbonization + activation
Water Filtration u
Air treatment
Industrial Use
Carbonization + activation
Water Filtration u
Air treatment
Industrial Use
0
Waste waste
Dashboard
Activated carbon income effect
%100
Posa rating rate
05Growth Strategy
Growth and Expansion Strategy
SELVESE BOTANICA · SECTION 7 · TURKEY + EUROPE · 2026–2035
5.1 — Milestone Time Chart
2026–2035 Growth Milestones
Year
Turkey
Europe
Sunday
2026
Redins installation · Land negotiation · Basic foundation of the greenhouse in the seedlings
Bulgaria market research
Go-to-market on sales page
2027
Fide greenhouse activated · GC–MS system installation · External lab analyses
Bulgaria Land Review · First Contact
Certification and sales preparation
2028
Redins full operational · First commercial production · HPLC installation u
Bulgaria decision point · (common) facility preparation
Revenue target in dashboard
2029
Proposed Sarıcakaya start · activated-carbon line · target annual profitability
Bulgaria facility starts installation · Romania research
US compliance cost and income scenario
2030
Seyitgazi starts · 2,250 decares total area
Bulgaria operational · Romania assessment
Revenue target in dashboard
2031
Proposed Alpu start · 3,000 decares reached · maturity phase
Romania facility decision · Italy partnership research
mature financial target dashboard
2032–33
Antalya – Apple greenfield · 12 months production
Romania plant operational · EU production network is growing
Premium export acceleration
2034–35
Muğla / Aydın greenfield · conditional 6,000+ decare network
Potential Italy / France partnership · Provence network
Global premium brand positioning · 10M+ EUR target
5.2 — Turkey Expansion Plan
Turkey Greenfield Expansion Network
2026 ✓ Active
Central · Phase 1
Eskisehir Basin
Kızılinler · Sarıcakaya · Seyitgazi · Alpu · 3,000 decares
- Main distilation + extraction facility
- R&D and analytical center
- Fide production greenhouse
- 2026–2031 full installation
🏭
2032–33
Priority 1 · Phase 2
Antalya
Apple / Horror area
- 12 months continuous production
- Low frost risk, long season
- Port logistics (Antalya port)
- Lavender, bay laurel and rosemary focus
🌊
2033–34
Priority 2 · Phase 3
Muğla
Ula / Yacht area
- Balanced precipitation regime
- Advantage for late harvesting products
- Tourism/wellness brand potential
- Immortelle, mastic-oriented
🌿
2034–35
Priority 3 · Phase 4
Aydın
Nazilli / Spring area
- High active component efficiency
- Contracted production infrastructure
- Pearl, integrated rotation with olive
- Chamomile focused on wood
☀️
2034–35
Priority 4 · Phase 4
İzmir
Aegean surroundings
- Port access and export logistics
- Academic and industrial network
- Ege University Faculty of Agriculture
- Long-term evaluation
⚓
Long Term
Potential · Phase 5
Black Sea / Domestic Anatolia
Kastamonu · Tokat · Sivas surroundings
- Research-led Rhodiola, lemon balm and linden scope
- High altitude + cool climate plants
- Rich natural plant population u
- Evaluate according to market demand
🏔️
5.3 — European Expansion First
Europe — Veriye-Based Country First
1. Priority
🇧🇬
Phase 1 · 2029–203 0
Bulgaristan
Plovdiv Region
Labor Cost
Sector Infrastructure
Input Speed
Brand Value
Greenfield + Contracted Manufacturer
🇷🇴
Phase 2 · 2031–2032
Romanya
Transilvanya
Labor Cost
Sector Infrastructure
Input Speed
Brand Value
Greenfield or Local Partner
🇮🇹
Phase 3 · Long Term
Italy
Toskana
Labor Cost
Brand Value
News
Input Speed
AR-GE / Brand Partnership
🇫🇷
Phase 4 · Long Term
Fransa
Provence
Labor Cost
Brand Value
Premium Network
Input Speed
Distributor + Information Transfer
5.4 — Total Production Area Growth
Türkiye + Europe Total Production Area (decares)
Turkey
Europe (division, prediction)
Total
5,5 — Strategic Growth Principles
Growth Disiplini
06Financial Source
Financial Source
TEK KANONIK RESOURCE · DASHBOARD · INVESTMENT · HIBE · P&L · MARJ
Single Source Rule
This section does not repeat financial information; all financial details are managed in dashboard.
Income projection, EBITDA, net profit, investment phases, IPARD / TUBITAK / KOSGEB support assumptions, head analysis, cash flow, product-based income distribution, raw material cost and margin account are kept in dashboard as single quantitative source. The strategy document shows that only the financial model responds to what decision questions.
The role of the financial part in the strategy
Not to produce Rakam, which figure feeds what strategic decision.
Investment decision
The central facility is monitored in the dashboard where analytical spine and scale phases need capital. The decision principle on the strategy remains constant: not aggressive debt, but with the combination of cash flow and appropriate grants.
Scale decision
Return increase is tested with product form and capacity growth dashboard scenarios. This page only states that the quality standard will not grow volume without protection.
Risk decision
Price fluctuation, buyer condensation, raw material cost and margin printing are digitized in the dashboard; it is interpreted as risk discipline in the strategy section.
07Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis
SELVESE BOTANICA · SECTION 8 · 11 RISK · 5 CATEGORY · MITGATION + ACID PLAN
7.0 — Risk Summary
Risk Portfolio — Overview
3
High Priority
Risk
Risk
6
Medium-High
Risk
Risk
2
Medium
Risk
Risk
11
Total Risk
5 Categories
5 Categories
7.1 — Risk Heat Map
Probability × Effect Matrix
EFFECT →
Probability 1
Very Low
Very Low
Probability 2
Low
Low
Probability 3
Orta
Orta
Probability 4
High
High
Probability 5
Very High
Very High
Effect 5
Kritik
Kritik
R4
Buyer Loss
Buyer Loss
Impact 4
High
High
R6 Regulation
R7 Fault
R8 Staff
R7 Fault
R8 Staff
R1 Consistency
R3 Price
R3 Price
Effect 3
Orta
Orta
R9 Chemotype
R11 Native Raki Tags
R11 Native Raki Tags
R2 Don
R5 Certification
R5 Certification
R10 Price Printing
Effect 2
Low
Low
Effect 1
Minimal
Minimal
Kritik Primary intervention
High Active monitoring
Orta Periodic review
Low Rutin Tags
7.2 — Risk Cards
11 Detailed Cards of Risk
R1 · Agricultural
High
Courier / Extreme Air
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
Drop irrigation to all areas · 4 zones production single location risk 25% downloadger · Water storage / rain harvest assessment
Emergency Action
If April–May rainfall is more than 40% below normal, prioritize irrigation and reassess the harvest window · In a severe loss, any spot purchase used to meet buyer obligations must pass traceability, quality and margin review
R3 · Sunday
High
Essential Oil Price Surge
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
60% of income from stable extracts · 12–24 month frame contracts · 20 types of portfolio risk
Emergency Action
Price 25%+ thought spot sale is stopped, stored in stock · The capacity to produce the extract is shifted
R4 · Sunday
High
EU/US Buyer Loss
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
The variety of buyers is managed under one customer ceiling and tracking discipline sales-marketing system
Emergency Action
The platform in Sales & Marketing Road Map, exhibition and CRM channels are retested primarily
R5 · Legislation
Medium-High
Organic / COSMOS Certification Delay
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
Started in 2026 — 18 months ahead of 2028 · Working with an accredited consultant · Technical file is prepared complete
Emergency Action
Priority to pharmaceutical extract + food segment in case of delay · Cosmetic segment is delayed 6–12 months
R7 · Operational
Medium-High
Distilation Unit Breakdown
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
3 mobile units backup capacity · Critical parts in stock · Annual maintenance before harvest · 48 hours service contract
Emergency Action
Call for service within 4 hours · If there is no solution for 24 hours, the mobile unit max capacity · 48 hours exceed the external distilation partner
R10 · Competition
Medium-High
Indian/Chinese Price Printing
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
Price not analytical data + traceability + competition with EU origin · CoA in every shipment · EU regulation control indian/China print eliminators
Emergency Action
If the price concentrates on the competition, the volume is drawn from the products with high margins (Immortelle, Melisa)
R2 · Agricultural
Medium-High
Don / Over Cold
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
Automatic frost warning system · At the beginning of season, seedlings are kept in stock · 4 zones of production structure distributes the risk of local frost
Emergency Action
-3°C warning in the cover/heating measures are activated · Early harvest assessment is performed · Lost lotlar seedlings are substituted with stock
R6 · Legislation
Medium-High
EU / US Regulation Change
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
Monthly EU/US legislation tracking · 20 types of portfolio provide variety against single product restriction · Continuous communication with regulatory consultant
Emergency Action
Pause affected production when a restriction is announced · Redirect inventory only after regulatory, quality, buyer and margin review · Reassess the portfolio and publish a realistic implementation timetable
R8 · Operational
Medium-High
Lock Personnel Loss
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
All procedures in written documentation system · Double competence model — spare person for each critical role is grown · Competitive fee + share option plan
Emergency Action
Temporary advisor is activated within 2 weeks in the key role discharge · within 30 days the recruitment process is launched · Information transfer protocol is applied
R9 · Technical
Medium
Chemotype Handle
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
All seedlings are produced in central greenhouse control · GC–MS scan before harvesting with field sampling · Genetic controlled material use
Emergency Action
Non-target GC–MS lot is separated, not shipped to the buyer · Sapling source field is determined by the next season revised
R11 · Competition
Medium
Native Competition Development
Probability
Etki
✅ Mitigation
2–3 years of leading start advantage · Analytical infrastructure and EU buyer relations can not be copied quickly for competitors · Brand and certification shield
Emergency Action
Premium segment (Immortelle, Melisa) and special chemotype products are focused if competitor exports start EU exports · Buyer relations are strengthened
7.3 — Risk Category Distribution
Risk Category and Priority Distribution
Agricultural / Climate2 risk
Market & Price2 risk
Operational / Technical3 risk
Legislation / Certification2 risk
Rekabet2 risk
Overview: Risk portfolio is distributed balanced; no single category domination. Operational risks are the most crowded group but are ready for mitigation tools (liter unit, stock, maintenance).
Presentation Documents
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